His family survived by eating a lot of apples.
Notice that there are long term peaks in interest rates in 1920 and then again in 1981 -- 61 years later.
But has that been the case before and what about now? There are long term lows in interest rates in 1899 and then again in 1946, 47 years later. See Interest Rates Over the Last 100 Years. Good God, this reminds me of Chauncey, Peter Sellers character in But your link claiming economic depressions and simply "self-healing" I think to myself, hey, I of course do not remember the great depression personally, but I do study history and love documentaries, especially on the great depression and I cannot describe such a period as Kondratieff being executed for simply doing economic research is quite a horrific story in and of itself!I think that's the link you're referring to. (low to low) or 1981 - 2040? I think those distinctions get too artificial and restrictive, but there is simply no getting around that All very well and good, you may say, there was a 61 year period from 1920-81 of highs in interest rates. But he never, never, ever kept any money in a bank after 1929.I saw him pull out a wad of bills and pay cash for a 1957 Chevrolet. (peak to peak) Kondratieff cycle, and again the inflation rate (currently at 4.3%) exceeds long term rates, at least as measured by the 10 year bond.
That 3 percent also corresponds with the 1980 downtrend on Yamada's chart. Only near the very peak interest rates of ~1981, as well as near the very trough of ~1946 did the inflation rate meet or exceed rates on long term interest.
When he died in 2000, he still hated eating apples because of the memories of having only apples to eat.An asside: No one in my family ever did use debt except for their mortgage. What I can show you is the CPI from 1921-1980 (in red), and interest rates beginning in 1962 (in blue):The paramount postwar American economic problem faced by Truman was inflation, not depression as many had projected. You can see some of the decline from that high on the red line in the chart above. Many commentators (like the one linked to in the intro to this diary) divide the Kondratieff cycle into seasons: spring (non-inflationary growth), summer (inflationary growth), autumn (growth with disinflation, i.e., declining inflation), and winter (a deflationary depression). Interest Rate Controls: The United States in the 1940s MARK TOMA In 1942 the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve agreed to keep the interest rate on long-term government bonds below a ceiling of 2.5 percent. Keep this 1946 low in interest rates in mind -- and indeed the fact that interest rates throughout the entire decade of the 1940s were under 3%.
We'll come back to that. In short, just about everybody.Notice that there are long term peaks in interest rates in 1920 and then again in 1981 -- 61 years later.
Interest rates rose approximately 35 years from 1946 – 1981 and fell for 35 years from 1981 – 2016. For example, even now Boomers and survivors of the Silent and Greatest generations before them remember the tremendous inflation of the 1970s and don't want to see it happen again. But I foresee the economy having a respite towards the end of this year, and at some point after that inflation will resume.Alternatively, it's certainly possible that we already had the biggest inflationary burst by way of the housing bubble, as suggested by this graph from Tim Iacono of The Mess That Greenspan Made:This diary can best be described as me thinking aloud, taking into account the odd confluence of low interest rates and high inflation that occurred exactly at the trough of the last K-wave, and considering the significant possibility that in our imminent past or future the situation will recur (but this time without the post WW2 wage pressures).I'm just reading and certainly agree that most people have not even lived with 1981 to remember.Ya know we need more people on here who can understand what you are saying.
Why does the Kondratieff curve have validity?
The Depression kept interest rates low in the 1930s and during the war years of the 1940s, interest rates were pegged.
I'm not a trader, and I don't put much faith in short term charts the likes of which you typically see in financial porn. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis.Louise Yamada breaks down 200 years of interest rates They believed in paying cash.
Now let's look at the current cycle. Interest rates follow very long-term cycles. Since the 1980 I believe the value has been harvested (merged and stripped, off-shored, etc.) Technical analyst Louise Yamada outlines 200 years of U.S. interest rates, explains why the bottom is in. We want to hear from you.Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inboxGet this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services.
I think that's why you are getting readers but not to many comments.
The result was the 80th Congress, the first Republican-controlled Congress in 16 years. "We are definitely watching 3 percent because that's going to be the ultimate level at which we can definitively say that rates have reversed." Given what is happening to the dollar, to the price of oil and foodstuffs, and the inflationary impact of the Iraq war in particular, another inflationary burst marking the exact midpoint in the interest rate cycle cannot be discounted. (to all of you chickens out there, stop lurking and post a comment, do you believe inflation will peak or will continue to increase? But how many financial or economic advisors have any living memory of the Great Depression? (Right now the 10 year treasury yields ~3.70%). Although its worth noting, April 1946 marked the start of a bear market for bonds that lasted — with some fits and starts — until rates peaked in the early 1980s. "We've been looking at the process that we think has been taking place over the last six to eight years in our interest rates, and we think now that the 2012 low probably is going to prove to be the low just the way 1946 proved to be the low in the last cycle," the head of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors said Thursday on CNBC's "The yield on the U.S. 10-year has surged to 2.3 percent following the election on higher inflation expectations under President-elect "I think it would be very healthy [to raise rates]," explained Yamada. Most people's budget problems would dissappear if they only used cash. He does a great job explaining the Kondratieff "seasons" but I don't subscribe to anybody else's political gloss on them.I still believe we are very close to the highest inflation rate we will see this year, which will decrease during and after the recession we are in. And as for the present, here is a chart of long term interest rates (the 10 and 30 year treasury bonds) from 1981 to the present, 27 years later:Lo and behold, there has been a decline in interest rates that potentially is intact to this day, a period of 27 years. "The early stage of a bull market can be accompanied by the initial rising rate cycle," she said.
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